Hi everyone
Many years ago a friend I visited had on his wall a poster of a roof of a medieval European house, with hand made tiles on the roof - each tile was different, but together they worked as a roof. It was the words printed over the picture that I remember:
To every complex problem
There are many simple solutions
They are wrong!
Is cancer incidence increasing? Yes, because cancer is largely a disease of older age and we are living longer. So by the time we reach 75, (and we can all expect to reach 75 now - a huge change in the past 50 years) there is a 1 in 3 chance if your male and a 1 in 4 chance if your female, of having cancer. In this we are excluding all skin cancer except melanoma.
Is there variation in different cancers - yes, and it is argued that this is due to lifestyle changes and this is a positive. Most of our information about lifestyle and cancer comes from studies that look at cancer in different countries, changes in lifestyle and then in migrant groups changing from country of origin lifestyle to new country lifestyle. So, for example, as we have improved food preservation we have prevented cancer - yes, moulds that occur in food produce cancer causing substances. As we smoked more cigarettes in the early 1900's, so we increased lung cancer.
We also have to be aware of incidence figures that may simply reflect that we are better at diagnosing cancer. The classic case of this has been the significant increase in prostate cancer since the early 1990's - it simply reflects the availability of the PSA test - not the real incidence of prostate cancer.
What is more important is the survival data. 50 years ago the overall five year survival from cancer was about 25%, now it is >60%. That is something to celebrate.
Sress? Did I have stress in my life before I had cancer - yes, but so do lots of people who don't get cancer. Also we know that for many cancers, particularly ones that are linked to lifestyle, the length of time for the cancer to develop is often up to forty years. Did we have stress forty years ago? What do we mean by stress anyway? Do we use the psychiatrists definition, the endocrinologists definition, the popular press definition (if we used the latter - going to an AFL match such as the last Hawthorn Geelong match would mean there are > 60,000 people who are going to get cancer as a result!).
If you want information on cancer incidence and survival then go the the Cancer Australia website, or the Cancer Council website.
Cheers
Sailor
Countless as the sands of the sea are human passions. Nikolai Gogol